01
Dynamics
What shapes the rain and wind a storm brings, and what governs the path it takes
and how fast it travels. We study individual cases in detail, combining
observations with dynamical model experiments, then test whether each mechanism
holds across a larger sample of storms.
heavy rainfallwind guststracktranslational speed
02
Predictability
Where short-range forecasts fail, and why. We take forecasts that missed —
the wrong rainfall, the wrong intensity, the wrong track — and trace the
error back to its cause. What the diagnosis shows then goes back into the model:
sharper observations fed in at the start, and a better account of the physics
inside it.
forecast error diagnosisdata assimilationmodel physics
03
Climate
How storm activity swings from year to year and decade to decade, and how much of
that swing has come from warming. Finding what drives those swings is what makes a
forecast for the season — or the decade — ahead possible. Model
experiments carry the same question forward: how much activity to expect under the
scenarios for the rest of this century.
long-term variability and changeseasonal-to-decadal forecastfuture projection
04
Risk
What a storm costs the places it reaches. We build fast, simple models that lay a
storm's wind and rainfall onto the map at fine detail, and tie those fields to the
losses actually recorded. Put together, the two sharpen the tools insurers and
planners use to price storm risk.
parametric modeldamage functioncatastrophe model